Power Rankings 4/13: The Backstretch

We’re nearing the Kentucky Derby at the same time that the Hoops League is winding down its fourth regular season, so one might say we are in the backstretch for both. In this edition, we take a look at each team’s remaining schedule, and give an estimate of their record for the remainder of the season. I’m Cyclops Inc., and these are the power rankings.

1. Los Angeles Stars (19-5)

Remaining Schedule: @NY, SF, @BOS, POR, @VAS, HOU, SD, @CHI, MIA

7-2. The Stars have never held the top perch here before, but they richly deserve it. They are the only team that has yet to lose after the All-Star break, and they’ve played some damn good teams during that time, beating Chicago at home and Miami on the road during that stretch. At 19-5, they look like the clear favorites to hang on to the West’s #1 seed, despite the fact that they’ve got a bit of a tough schedule going forward. For their sake, they had better hope they can lock it up before the end of the season—Carl Joseph (15.7 PPG) and Polan Stronk (21.9 PPG) need some rest.

2. Boston Charms (18-6)

Remaining Schedule: STL, @ATL, LA, SF, @NY, POR, @VAS, HOU, @SD

8-1. Aside from a bit of a head-scratching loss to the Tides, the Charms have been on fire coming out of the break, and have played a lot like the team we expected to see after they signed three All-Stars in the off-season. Just Jaos (15.7 PPG) has started to pull his 3PFG% up, as it now sits at 40.4%; Cedric Hardwicke is having a career year on the defensive side of the ball, with 1.5 SPG and 3.5 BPG; the return of Kyron Hickman has greatly bolstered the bench, though it was Noel Stoner who dropped 19 off the bench on 7/7 shooting to torch Chicago in a huge matchup; finally, Pippy Big Pippy has firmly inserted himself into the ROTY conversation with 7.2 PPG and 5.4 RPG. It would appear that the Charms are rounding into form at the perfect time, and they are doing it without Thomas Shoffner. Whether they catch Chicago for the #1 seed or not (which their ultra-soft schedule makes quite doable), they are not a team anyone wants to see in the playoffs—or the regular season, for that matter.

3. Houston Cosmos (18-6)

Remaining Schedule: @SD, CHI, @MIA, STL, @ATL, @LA, SF, @BOS, POR 5-4. The Cosmos were absolutely steamrolled by the Charms to come out of the break, but have won three in a row since. Four of the starters are averaging double digits, including Joseph Canny, who has adapted nicely to his diminished shot and old age, and Maxwell Goodson, who has looked no worse for wear after his horrific foot injury last year. Even so, this Cosmos unit is unmistakably worse than the ones they have trotted out in years past, and with such a brutal schedule remaining, it’s hard to imagine them managing to get the #1 seed in the West. Yet so long as they are healthy heading into the playoffs, they still pose a threat—Jose Mendes (11.2 PPG, 9.8 APG, 2.2 SPG) is continually surpassing himself, Alex Sinclair (1.9 BPG, 4.5 SPG) looks sure to capture that elusive DPOY, Cacio Way (14 PPG, 52.5% FG) has settled in nicely, and Canny and Goodson are still formidable. Look for Houston to rest players during the last few games of the season, assuming LA pulls away in the race for the first seed—and then, buckle up for what may be the last ride for one of the best cores in league history.

4. Chicago Blues (19-5)

Remaining Schedule: VAS, @HOU, SD, NY, @MIA, STL, @ATL, LA, @SF

7-2. The Blues have sputtered a bit off the post-ASG blocks, losing at home to Boston and on the road to LA. With an absolute cupcake of a remaining schedule, they are in the driver’s seat for #1 in the East, a position that means a lot more this year given the existence of a viable third contender (Miami) for the first time ever, but Boston is creeping up on them for sure. Walter Yensid (23.3 PPG, 60% FG, 5.9 APG, 2.4 SPG) continues to play on a level no one else in the league seems able to reach, but voter fatigue may keep his third MVP from him, ironically in the year he perhaps deserves it most. Free agent additions Kwazy Iceberg and Scottie Thompson have been solid contributors, but their success has come at the expense of some for longtime stalwarts Jaga C and Tshaka Zoulou, an alarming trend. Rajah Rose also looks like a lock to bring in 6MOTY, but he may be gone after this season. It isn’t the first time it’s seemed like this, but the clock appears to be ticking on the Blues’ dynasty, and it may be harder than ever to get to the Finals. Chicago will likely push for the #1 seed—better to let Miami and Boston take each other out—but the health of Yensid and co. has to be the first priority no matter what.

5. Miami Tides (16-8)

Remaining Schedule: POR, @VAS, HOU, @SD, CHI, NY, @STL, ATL, @LA

6-3. The Tides are just one game away from locking up their first-ever playoff appearance, so regardless of how they finish the season, it is an unmitigated success, and they ought to be happy with it. The surprise blowout of Boston today means that they are still theoretically in contention for home-court advantage in the first round, but given their schedule and the way Boston and Chicago have been playing, that seems unlikely. Anthony Bridges (23.9 PPG, 49.4% 3PFG) is certainly in the MVP conversation, given the way he has turned this franchise around, and Lamarr Chambers (8 PPG, 58.2% FG) is at least in the conversation for 6MOTY. Even without Sakuragi, the Tides are a formidable opponent, and though they will likely rest players and wind up with the #3 seed, they will surely push Chicago and/or Boston very hard in the playoffs.

6. San Francisco Quakes (13-11)

Remaining Schedule: ATL, @LA, @NY, BOS, @POR, VAS, @HOU, SD, CHI

4-5. The Quakes have a very lopsided schedule left to play, playing a tough four-game stretch with 3 on the road and the home game against Boston before finishing with 3 of 4 at home. San Francisco took care of business against St. Louis today, but they’ve struggled all season to beat anyone consistently, and have to be considered something of a disappointment, given that they have hardly improved from last season. Samuel James (22 PPG) is his normal self, but Car Lo (3 PPG, 36.6 FG%, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.7 BPG) and Darth Jor-El (12 PPG, 7.8 RP, 1 SPG, 3.1 BPG) have stagnated in their growth, and off-season acquisitions Jake Robinson (1.6 PPG, 34% FG, 4.2 APG) and Yeetus McGeetus (2.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG) have made the difference many thought they would. The notable exception to this is Darryl Stevenson (13.3 PPG, 57.7% FG, 54.5% 3PFG), who may be in the conversation for MIP simply because he has been far and away the best shooter from deep in the league this season. Even with all this said, the Quakes are 3 up on Portland, and 5 up on San Diego, so their first-ever playoff berth seems secure. They will need tremendously improved effort from all sides save Stevenson (and possibly Tristen Ewer) if they want to do anything there.

7. Portland Roses (10-14)

Remaining Schedule: @MIA, @STL, ATL, @LA, SF, @BOS, @NY, VAS, @HOU

4-5. With only three of nine games remaining at home, Portland undoubtedly has one of the toughest remaining schedules. They won a big game on the road against San Diego, and look pretty likely to pick up the fourth seed in the West once again. But even if they manage that, it’s hard to have much hope for them going forward. True, Jamon Alexander (28.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG) remains perhaps the league’s best player, and true, Vun Brunson (8.1 PPG, 12.8 APG, 51.5% FG) is among the frontrunners for MIP, but Portland has declined across the board from last season’s magical run, as it was expected they would. Zane Cruz (6.1 PPG, 44.9% 3PFG) has heated up as of late, but just has not been able to replicate Koality Game’s production. Jordan Frazier (14 PPG, 47% FG, 45.9% 3PFG) has not filled the void much either—his field goal percentages have actually regressed across the board—and offseason acquisition Syndor Drago has been a bit player at best. Only King Ntilikina has been a really solid new piece for them, and he has played sparingly. Portland look sure to make the playoffs, but even more sure to be out after a round.

8. St. Louis Archers (7-17)

Remaining Schedule: @BOS, POR, VAS, @HOU, SD, @CHI, MIA, NY, @ATL

4-5. True, thus far the backcourt pairing of Garcia and Bas has been somewhat ill—the Archers have lost 3 of 4 since entering the ASG on a three-game win streak. Even so, St. Louis is undoubtedly the favorite to emerge from the heap at the bottom of the East, despite their relatively difficult schedule. Garcia (13.9 PPG, 53.3% FG) needs to keep being a laser, and Westbrook Darius (16.4 PPG, 2.5 TOPG) needs to share and hold onto the ball. Bas will come around with time, as will new addition to the starting lineup Ricky Jiggs. More concerning is the bench, where the Archers are perilously thin—Harry Mason and Elijah Smith should not be your best bench players. Still, St. Louis has proven it can beat bad teams, and it plays four of them (VAS, SD, NY, ATL) before the end of the season. Yes, they’ll likely lose at least one of those, but it’s hard to imagine Chicago and/or Miami won’t be resting by the time they play. St. Louis can at least beat them shorthanded. Once they make the playoffs though, they’ll be lucky to take a single game from the #1 seed.

9. New York Empire (7-17)

Remaining Games: LA, @SD, SF, @CHI, BOS, @MIA, POR, @STL, VAS

2-7. As Quixotic as the Empire’s run this season has been—a team that lost its two best players to free agency, they ought to be losing more games—it just is hard to imagine they make the playoffs, particularly considering their 1-3 run since the ASG. Losing to St. Louis at home was bad enough, but losing to Vancouver on the road may have been the death knell for their far-fetched playoff hopes. There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged by their performance this season—at times, Xavier Sevenade (15.1 PPG, 50% FG, 48.3% 3PFG) has looked like the man, Guy Chug (12.0 PPG, 46% 3PFG) has taken a huge step forward, Aaron Ford (2.9 PPG, 9.5 APG) is already one of the league’s best passers, and the perpetually underrated Jesus James (13 PPG, 57.3% FG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG) has been one of the league’s better centers. The forward position largely remains a liability for them, though—John Poland and Radley Hatchett-Miles have been nonfactors, and George Georgeson/Haruto Johnson have barely seen the floor. The Empire have shown signs of life this season, but this is not their year, nor is it supposed to be. With some good FA signings and a solid draft, they should be in the conversation for a playoff spot next season. At the moment though, they really ought not to be, and should do themselves a favor and miss the playoffs.

10. San Diego Surf (8-16)

Remaining Games: HOU, NY, @CHI, MIA, @STL, ATL, @LA, @SF, BOS

2-7. The horrific 89-35 shellacking at the hands of the Charms (the 21-0 run by Boston to start the game gave SDS the worst deficit ever to start a game, as well as the second-longest scoreless stretch in HLA history), the loss to Portland and Francisco Gerbi’s subsequent injury all but put the nail in the coffin on San Diego’s third season as a franchise, and it is almost certain to be the first one they will spend on the outside looking in of the playoffs. By all rights, they shouldn’t even be as close as they are, but this scrap squad has won more than a few games they shouldn’t have, and there is hope on the horizon. Last year’s ROTY Timothy Garcia Jr. has flashed signs of greatness now that he is seeing the ball consistently again, and Flight Reacts (6.3 PPG, 51.6% 3PFG), the last overall pick in the S3 draft, traded for as cap filler in the deal that brought Randall Ta to San Diego, has quietly been a deadeye for the Surf. The Surf are by far the league’s youngest team, and are bursting at the seams with potential. For the moment, though, they simply don’t have the talent to keep up with Portland and San Francisco, and will likely benefit from missing the playoffs.

11. Vancouver Summit (4-20)

Remaining Games: @CHI, MIA, @STL, @ATL, LA, @SF, BOS, @POR, @NY

3-6. Signs of life from Vancouver, who are 2-2 since the ASG after starting the season 2-18! Moving to acquire John Rodriguez has injected new life into this largely derelict squad, though there are other signs of hope beyond him. Jamie Spencer (7.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.1 APG) has struggled with shooting, but is getting the touches he needs to develop. Rusty Parent (3.9 PPG, 46.5% FG) has had a career year, and may yet be able to carve out a career for himself. Tyrone Jackson (18 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 53.9% FG) has been quite solid for this weak squad, and of course Melo Hayes (9.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 67.5% FG) has been the blazing beacon of light for this team; he provides the only credible challenge to Westbrook Darius for ROTY. Now running a 3-center lineup, Vancouver is not in the business of winning games…yet. With a solid cabinet of picks in coming seasons, plus a couple of top-tier prospects and young players, Vancouver is a team to keep an eye on both at the end of the season, where they may well play spoiler for a few squads, and during the off-season.

12. Atlanta Activists (5-19)

Remaining Games: @SF, BOS, @POR, VAS, HOU, @SD, CHI, @MIA, STL

1-8. One win would be a minor miracle, if they were able to manage it. It seems quite unlikely considering just how bad and unlucky Atlanta has been—Felipe Santos’ season-ending injury was just the exclamation point on one of the most snakebit seasons in history. Atlanta nearly had two All-Stars in Vega and Santos, they boast a pretty strong supporting cast led by former 6MOTY Tyler Moore, John Ram and Fred Fredericks have both taken steps forward, Adobo Flakes remains a top-tier prospect, and yet they are somehow 5-19. Why? Well, for one thing, they are an astounding 1-11 in games decided by 10 points or less. Most teams generally win about half of the games decided by ten points or less; Atlanta has won 8%. If they had won just 3 more of those games, they would be in the driver’s seat for the East’s final playoff spot. Still, in a lost season, there’s reason to look forward to the future for Atlanta. Santos (14.5 PPG, 54.9% FG, 47.5% 3PFG) took huge steps forward as a scorer, and has to be in the conversation for MIP despite his injury. Jon Rahm (7.9 PPG, 8.9 PPG, 41.2% 3PFG) also quietly progressed nicely in his third year in the league. And then, of course, there is Vega (20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who has become a star in his own right. Of the key members, only Fredericks and Adobo Flakes are up for contract, so the Rahm-Santos-Vega core has at least one more year together. Look for some pretty drastic improvement in that year, provided that they find a couple of decent defenders to complement their relatively solid offensive attack and generally gain some depth.